Kiwi Polls Election Model

New Zealand Election Forecast

Election Probability Forecast

Chance of winning based on current polling

Coalition 51.7%
Opposition 42.8%
Hung Parliament 5.5%

(23/01/2026) It is very tight race and has been showing that since early 2025, but the Coalition (National, Labour, NZFirst) remains a slight favorite, because of New Zealand First's rising poll numbers. If the election were held today, it would be likely that Labour would receive the most seats out of any party, but it is clear that is because of swifting numbers in the right-bloc, which is currently not benefiting the Opposition's (Labour, Greens, TPM) chances of winning. A polling miss could result in either side winning, making either side a risky bet.

Election Probability

23 January 2026

Coalition
51.7%
Opposition
42.8%
Hung Parliament
5.5%
How does our model work?

The Quasimodo Election Model simulates a New Zealand election after importing the current polling. It calculates a percentage chance of either the left bloc (Labour, TPM, Greens) or right bloc (National, NZFirst, Act) of winning the next election. This model uses techniques that are standard in the election modelling industry. No model is perfect and they are often misleading, especially in close elections. You should not base any decisions on ours or any other election model.
Quasimodo takes the current polling and does 50,000 simulations and then allocates seats according to the results of the simulations.



Model Seat Allocation

House of Representatives

Projected seat allocation • 121 seats • 61 needed for majority

✓ COALITION MAJORITY — 63 seats
Opposition • 58 seats
Labour 43
Green 12
Te Pāti Māori 3
Government • 63 seats
National 41
ACT 10
NZ First 12
(23/01/2026) The model assigns just three seats for Te Pati Māori, the lowest it has ever assigned to them. The model is programmed to treat Māori electorates differently than normal electorate seats. Admittingly, there isn't any completely reliable way of predicting the Māori electorates, so the model takes into account prior history and the correlations between party vote and Māori seats. Since there isn't publicly available polling data for individual Māori electorates, we have to rely on some clever statistical workarounds but we found a solution that we confidence in. However, whether the seats go to Te Pati Māori or Labour, it doesn't really affect the outcome of which bloc is going to win, as we can assume they are going to the left-bloc.

Latest Polls

New Zealand Polling Tracker

Party support across major polling organisations

NZ Polling Data
Date Pollster n NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM TOP Other Lead
23 Jan 2026Taxpayers' Union-Curia100031.534.47.77.011.93.00.73.8LAB +2.9
10 Dec 2025The Post–Freshwater St...103130.038.08.08.09.02.04.0LAB +8.0
07 Dec 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100030.031.610.68.98.13.11.66.0LAB +1.6
03 Dec 20251 News–Verian100736.035.07.010.09.00.60.42.4NAT +1.0
23 Nov 2025Roy Morgan82933.028.014.58.09.02.02.53.0NAT +5.0
10 Nov 2025Talbot Mills100033.038.09.07.08.02.4LAB +5.0
06 Nov 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100030.233.39.28.69.13.31.25.1LAB +3.1
26 Oct 2025Roy Morgan85732.030.512.08.09.52.52.53.0NAT +1.5
10 Oct 2025Talbot Mills109729.035.010.08.012.04.0LAB +6.0
08 Oct 20251 News–Verian101434.032.011.08.09.02.80.82.4NAT +2.0
08 Oct 2025The Post–Freshwater St...105031.034.09.09.011.03.02.0LAB +3.0
05 Oct 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100029.631.212.06.610.64.41.64.0LAB +1.6
21 Sep 2025Roy Morgan87031.528.513.59.08.05.52.51.5NAT +3.0
12 Sep 2025RNZ-Reid Research100032.534.310.97.28.74.11.40.9LAB +1.8
10 Sep 2025Talbot Mills100031.035.010.07.010.04.0LAB +4.0
02 Sep 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100033.133.810.76.78.14.31.12.2LAB +0.7
24 Aug 2025Roy Morgan87329.034.013.510.57.02.53.00.5LAB +5.0
10 Aug 2025Talbot Mills100032.034.011.08.09.34.42.8LAB +2.0
06 Aug 20251 News–Verian100234.033.010.08.09.03.71.31.0NAT +1.0
05 Aug 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100031.833.69.88.67.83.22.62.6LAB +1.8
27 Jul 2025Roy Morgan83231.031.011.510.59.53.51.02.0Tied
10 Jul 2025Talbot Mills109032.035.012.08.07.03.8LAB +3.0
06 Jul 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100033.931.69.49.19.83.51.21.5NAT +2.3
22 Jun 2025Roy Morgan81232.028.511.011.58.05.03.01.0NAT +3.5
15 Jun 2025The Post–Freshwater St...115032.034.011.08.08.02.04.0LAB +2.0
09 Jun 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100033.534.88.29.16.13.31.83.2LAB +1.3
30 May 2025RNZ-Reid Research100830.733.211.66.69.15.52.21.1LAB +2.5
28 May 20251 News–Verian100234.029.012.08.08.03.71.33.9NAT +5.0
04 May 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100034.633.29.19.57.43.90.51.8NAT +1.4
20 Apr 2025Roy Morgan82931.028.514.09.09.04.52.51.5NAT +2.5
02 Apr 20251 News–Verian100036.032.010.09.07.03.42.11.3NAT +4.0
01 Apr 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100033.529.811.010.07.44.31.51.4NAT +3.7
10 Mar 2025RNZ-Reid Research100032.932.310.09.47.25.01.81.4NAT +0.5
23 Mar 2025Roy Morgan88832.527.514.57.57.05.54.01.5NAT +5.0
10 Mar 2025Talbot Mills100331.034.010.010.06.14.44.5LAB +3.0
04 Mar 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100033.634.110.07.75.16.50.52.5LAB +0.5
23 Feb 2025Roy Morgan88830.529.015.511.06.03.02.52.5NAT +1.5
07 Feb 20251 News–Verian100234.033.010.09.05.03.71.93.6NAT +1.0
04 Feb 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100031.931.313.210.06.44.40.52.2NAT +0.6
27 Jan 2025Talbot Mills104933.034.012.09.05.24.62.2LAB +1.0
26 Jan 2025Roy Morgan88532.528.511.59.08.56.51.52.0NAT +4.0
13 Jan 2025Taxpayers' Union-Curia100029.630.99.510.88.15.32.13.7LAB +1.3
15 Dec 2024Roy Morgan88531.026.013.513.07.55.51.02.5NAT +5.0
04 Dec 20241 News–Verian100637.029.010.08.06.07.01.52.0NAT +8.0
03 Dec 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100034.226.98.313.05.45.51.12.2NAT +7.3
28 Nov 2024Labour–Talbot Mills100031.032.010.010.06.07.0LAB +1.0
27 Nov 2024The Post–Freshwater St...115034.031.013.08.06.04.0NAT +3.0
24 Nov 2024Roy Morgan86628.528.013.59.06.59.03.52.0NAT +0.5
10 Nov 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100038.831.59.38.56.52.50.92.1NAT +7.3
10 Nov 2024Talbot Mills100034.033.010.010.07.03.3NAT +1.0
20 Oct 2024Roy Morgan88331.029.014.09.07.05.02.03.0NAT +2.0
09 Oct 20241 News–Verian100037.029.012.08.05.03.82.62.3NAT +8.0
07 Oct 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100034.930.310.49.77.63.02.51.6NAT +4.6
22 Sep 2024Roy Morgan90237.523.014.010.07.54.02.51.5NAT +14.5
10 Sep 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100039.026.711.08.86.85.01.12.4NAT +12.3
10 Sep 2024Talbot Mills100037.032.010.08.06.13.9NAT +5.0
25 Aug 2024Roy Morgan89836.026.513.09.57.53.52.51.5NAT +9.5
14 Aug 20241 News–Verian106138.030.011.07.06.04.21.12.8NAT +8.0
21 Jul 2024Roy Morgan93032.524.014.011.06.56.04.51.5NAT +8.5
08 Jul 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100037.625.912.59.17.33.52.41.8NAT +11.7
23 Jun 2024Roy Morgan93035.027.514.59.05.53.52.52.5NAT +7.5
19 Jun 20241 News–Verian100238.029.013.07.06.03.31.52.1NAT +9.0
06 Jun 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100035.429.412.79.75.64.00.82.4NAT +6.0
19 May 2024Roy Morgan92533.530.014.09.55.53.03.01.5NAT +3.5
10 May 2024Talbot Mills100035.032.0NAT +3.0
07 May 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100037.330.010.29.45.53.11.43.1NAT +7.3
30 Apr 2024Labour–Talbot Mills100034.033.012.07.06.04.0NAT +1.0
24 Apr 20241 News–Verian100036.030.014.07.04.23.71.23.7NAT +6.0
21 Apr 2024Roy Morgan93436.524.513.011.05.55.52.02.0NAT +12.0
04 Apr 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100037.125.714.67.26.34.61.63.0NAT +11.4
24 Mar 2024Roy Morgan93138.023.013.511.56.53.52.51.0NAT +15.0
10 Mar 2024Talbot Mills100038.028.014.08.06.0NAT +10.0
05 Mar 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100037.425.311.310.07.42.52.14.0NAT +12.1
25 Feb 2024Roy Morgan93535.521.515.512.07.54.02.51.5NAT +14.0
14 Feb 20241 News–Verian100238.028.012.08.06.03.71.92.6NAT +10.0
10 Feb 2024Talbot Mills100038.029.012.07.06.24.91.4NAT +9.0
07 Feb 2024Taxpayers' Union-Curia100039.627.99.013.75.02.32.5NAT +11.7
28 Jan 2024Roy Morgan94738.022.015.57.56.04.54.52.0NAT +16.0
10 Jan 2024Curia100041.028.49.57.85.63.6NAT +12.6
17 Dec 2023Roy Morgan94736.022.015.59.56.05.04.02.0NAT +14.0
05 Dec 2023Curia100036.528.810.86.28.15.04.6NAT +7.7
26 Nov 2023Roy Morgan92037.521.012.512.58.02.53.52.5NAT +16.5
06 Nov 2023Taxpayers' Union-Curia100037.028.313.88.16.03.42.93.7NAT +8.7
Our model takes into account all available polls, with greater emphasis on more recent results. We do not rate or rank pollsters; all polls are weighted equally, with one exception: Roy Morgan. Although Roy Morgan is a legitimate research firm, it is our view that its polling methodology involves longer periods than other pollsters. As a result, Roy Morgan polls are weighted less heavily than others in our model (although, only by 25%). This is because Roy Morgan, in our view, doesn't capture rapid shifts in sentiments. If representatives from Roy Morgan wish to dispute this approach, they are welcome to contact Kiwi Polls, and we will consider their arguments. It is very common for models to weight pollsters based on their prior performance. Kiwi Polls is of the view that pollster ratings are a little problematic. For instance, US election models disfavoured some models entirely on the bias of partisan affiliation, sometimes not including them in models at all. If they had done so, they would have had more accurate results. House bias is a real thing in polling and should be considered, but subjectively rejecting some polls over others is problematic and should be done with care.

Polling in 2023: How Each Pollster Did

Rank Pollster Avg. Error Within MOE Key Errors
1 Talbot Mills (Corp) Lowest 6/7 Greens +2.2%
2 Curia (Taxpayers' Union) 2nd lowest 6/7 National -3.1%
3 Verian (1News) Mid-range 5/7 Greens ↑TPM ↓
4 Reid Research (Newshub) Mid-range 5/7 Greens ↑National ↓
5 Essential (Guardian) Higher 4/7 National ↓Labour ↑NZF ↑
6 Roy Morgan Highest 3/7 National ↓Greens ↑ACT ↑

In 2023, Pollsters generally underestimated National's strength, but generally got it right that National, ACT and New Zealand First would form a majority.