Quasimodo's live forecast of the 2026 election, alongside every major New Zealand poll.
Updated 27 October 2026. Latest poll added: 1 News–Verian, fieldwork ended 25 Oct.
A disputed outcome is still clearly the most likely result. At 60.15% it outweighs a Coalition win and an Opposition win combined, down from 61.37% on 20 October and below the record 62.25% set on 6 October. From 50,000 simulations based on Quasimodo's weighted polling average.
Average seat allocation across Quasimodo's simulations, based on its weighted polling average. The model projects a four-seat overhang, which expands Parliament from 120 seats to 124 and raises the majority threshold from 61 to 63.
The majority line falls at the edge of the Opportunity Party's seats. Government reaches 61 and Opposition 56, so neither clears 63 on its own. Government would get there with two of OPP's seven seats, while Opposition would need all seven.
Latest point on the tracker's 30-day trend line, a rolling mean of other pollsters' results, ± 1 std deviation, and change against 30 days earlier. These figures show published polls and are a separate display, not Quasimodo's forecast.
Kiwi Polls model estimate, not a poll. Each point is one model run.
An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to, and the extra seats are added to Parliament rather than taken from another party. These are average seat counts across every simulation, so they describe the centre of the range rather than one predicted result. Averages need not add up to any single outcome the model produced.
Sources: Curia, Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, Verian and Freshwater.
Aggregated party support from major polling organisations
Figures may not add to 100%. Polls also include smaller parties not shown on this tracker, and those parties have little chance of entering Parliament.
Kiwi Polls' own grades for each pollster's track record at past elections, from A+ to F.
| Pollster | Overall | 2023 election |
|---|---|---|
| Talbot Mills | A 86.5 | A+ 98.0 |
| Verian | A− 82.6 | A 89.8 |
| Curia | A− 82.3 | A 86.9 |
| Reid Research | B− 66.0 | C+ 63.5 |
| Roy Morgan | C 58.3 | F 33.7 |
| Freshwater | N/A | N/A |
Scores are out of 100. Freshwater is not yet rated, as it has no election record. How we rate pollsters
The forecast above counts OPP as unaligned. These Quasimodo runs use the same weighted polling average but assume OPP commits to a bloc.
alongside National, ACT and NZ First
alongside Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori
Not a prediction of what OPP would do. Only the bloc assignment changes between the two runs, and almost all of the movement comes from reassigning hung outcomes. Read how the model works
Real-money odds from Polymarket, shown for comparison.
The two coalitions, one above the other.
The two main contenders, one above the other.
About these markets. It is illegal for prediction markets such as Polymarket to allow New Zealanders to place bets on them, and the Kiwi Polls model may not reflect current market sentiment. These markets currently have low trading volume, so prices can swing sharply.
Headlines from NZ media. Each link opens the original article.
Labour 28.7%, National 27.6%, Greens 14.3%, NZ First 11.8%, ACT 9%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. On The Post's projection using the Electoral Commission's seat calculator, National, ACT and NZ First would win 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 54, leaving Opportunity's 7 seats to decide who governs. Online survey of 1,458 likely voters, 9–19 Oct, ±3%, paid for by Infrastructure NZ.
Vote Compass answers from more than 114,000 people show the future of the Māori electoral roll is the most polarising question this election, with about 30% strongly against abolishing it and 25% strongly in favour. Police powers to move on rough sleepers and fully funded GP visits came next. The broadest agreement was on an English test for work visa applicants, backed by 79%.
Chris Hipkins has drawn level with Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister, both on 20%, after last week's leaders' debate. National slipped to 28% to tie Labour, while Opportunity rose to 8%, enough for about 10 MPs and the balance of power. Leader Qiulae Wong says Opportunity will negotiate first with the biggest party on election night.
Support for the governing bloc rose three points to 52%, its highest since January, opening a 10.5-point lead over the Labour-led Opposition. Labour slipped to 23.5%, its weakest result in two years, while NZ First climbed to 10%. On these numbers the Government would win 62 of 120 seats, with Opportunity taking eight but not holding the balance of power.
Labour fell four points to 31% in the latest Anacta poll for corporate clients, remaining narrowly ahead of National on 30%. The Herald confirmed the figures but did not obtain Anacta's seat calculation. The drop follows National's recent attack accusing Labour of planning more taxes than the one it is campaigning on.
Both blocs held steady, with the National-led parties on 49% and the Labour-led Opposition on 41%. The Opportunity Party rose 1.5 points to a record 9.5%, its fourth straight monthly gain. Labour fell to 24%, its weakest showing since September 2024, and Roy Morgan projects Opportunity taking eleven seats and the balance of power.
New polls land all campaign. Get the model's read the moment they do.
Friends of Kiwi Polls. All four are run by other people; we take nothing for listing them and have no say in what they publish.
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gingerbreadelections.comLive results, maps and electorate-by-electorate coverage through election night on 7 November 2026, with analysis and video on their YouTube channel.
resultsdesk.nzAn independent statistical forecast of the 2026 election, with seat predictions, the chances of eight possible governments and projections for every general and Māori electorate.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.ioAn interactive calculator for the 2026 election that takes account of which parties have ruled out governing together, so you can see which coalitions could actually form a government.
jason.schwarzenberger.co.nz