NZ Election Forecast

New Zealand Election Forecast

Aggregating every major New Zealand poll into one live forecast of the 2026 election.

Updated 6 September 2026 · Latest addition: Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll
Live forecast
46.24%
Coalition retains government
National · ACT · NZ First
47.32%
Disputed outcome
Neither bloc wins a majority
6.44%
Opposition wins
Labour · Greens · Te Pāti Māori

No outcome reaches 50%. A disputed outcome and a Coalition win sit about a point apart, close enough that the model treats neither as the favourite. From 50,000 simulations of the current polling average.

Government
Opposition
Disputed Outcome
Updated · 6 Sep 2026

What this means: The model currently measures the chances of either the Right-bloc (the current Government) and the Left-bloc (the current Opposition) winning the NZ election. A "disputed outcome" is the chance of an outcome where neither bloc clearly wins (on election day). This includes outcomes where the Opportunity Party (known as OPP) decides the result as a so-called kingmaker.

Seat projection
A 122-seat Parliament, with 62 needed to govern
Average seat allocation across Quasimodo's simulations of the current polling average. The model projects a two-seat overhang, which expands Parliament from 120 seats to 122 and raises the majority threshold from 61 to 62.
62 for a majority
37
14
5
7
12
10
37
Opposition 56 · 6 short
OPP 7
Government 59 · 3 short

The majority line falls inside the Opportunity Party's seats. Government reaches 59 and Opposition 56, so neither clears 62 on its own. Either would with OPP's seven.

National
37
37 elec · 0 list
Labour
37
26 elec · 11 list
Green
14
3 elec · 11 list
NZ First
12
0 elec · 12 list
ACT
10
1 elec · 9 list
Opportunity
7
0 elec · 7 list
Te Pāti Māori
5
5 elec · 0 list

An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to, and the extra seats are added to Parliament rather than taken from another party. These are average seat counts across every simulation, so they describe the centre of the range rather than one predicted result. Averages need not add up to any single outcome the model produced.

What if the Opportunity Party picks a side?
The forecast above counts OPP as unaligned. These runs use the same polling average but assume it commits to a bloc.
OPP with the Coalition alongside National, ACT and NZ First
Government 91.59% Hung 1.71% Opposition 6.70%
OPP with the Opposition alongside Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori
Government 46.40% Hung 4.67% Opposition 48.93%

Not a prediction of what OPP would do. Only the bloc assignment changes between the two runs, and almost all of the movement comes from reassigning hung outcomes.

Read how the Quasimodo model works
Polling

The Polls

Sources: Curia · Talbot Mills · Roy Morgan · Reid Research · Verian · Freshwater
Latest polls

New Zealand Polling Tracker

Aggregated party support from major polling organisations

Pollster
Parties
Individual polls 30-day average ± std deviation
Sources: Curia, Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, Verian, Freshwater
Every poll

Individual poll results

Every poll feeding the average above, newest first. Filter by year, or by which party led.
Year
Lead
Date Pollster n NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM OPP Others Lead
Showing 0 polls
National
Labour
Green
ACT
NZ First
Te Pāti Māori
Opportunity
Election news

Latest from the campaign

Headlines from around NZ media — links open the original article
Roy Morgan
August 31, 2026

Roy Morgan August poll: National-led bloc leads 49% to 41%, Opportunity hits record 9.5%

Both blocs held steady, with the National-led parties on 49% and the Labour-led Opposition on 41%. The Opportunity Party rose 1.5 points to a record 9.5%, its fourth straight monthly gain. Labour fell to 24%, its weakest showing since September 2024, and Roy Morgan projects Opportunity taking eleven seats and the balance of power.

Read article ↗
Stuff
August 19, 2026

Stuff's Pulse of the Nation: 30% less likely to vote National post-coup attempt

Snap polling by Stuff found nearly a third of voters say they are less likely to vote National following last week's attempted leadership coup.

Read article ↗
1News
August 17, 2026

Most Kiwis still back MMP despite Luxon stance

A 1News Verian poll found 53% want to keep MMP against 29% favouring a different voting system, with 18% unsure. The question follows Christopher Luxon's commitment to a referendum on the electoral system if National is re-elected.

Read article ↗
1News
August 12, 2026

Poll: Opportunity Party surges as NZ First slides amid Luxon saga

The Opportunity Party cleared the threshold for the first time in a 1News Verian poll, climbing three points to 8% as NZ First fell three to the same figure. Labour dropped two to 30% with National steady on 29%. The poll ran as National MPs backed Christopher Luxon in a confidence vote.

Read article ↗
Stuff
August 7, 2026

Labour plummets, Opportunity breaches 6% in new poll

Labour fell 3.7 points to 27.8%, its worst Curia result since December 2024, while the Opportunity Party climbed 2.8 to 6.1%. On these numbers the coalition holds a one-seat majority and Opportunity takes eight seats; Chris Hipkins dismissed the result as a "rogue poll".

Read article ↗
Roy Morgan
August 4, 2026

Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll: National-led Government leads Labour-led Opposition 49% to 41% in July

The governing bloc slipped two points to 49% but held a clear lead over the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori Opposition on 41%. Roy Morgan projects a hung Parliament, with the Opportunity Party on 8% winning seats for the first time and holding the balance of power.

Read article ↗
Markets

Prediction markets

Real-money odds from Polymarket, shown for comparison
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
Yes 27% · No 73%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
Yes 27% · No 74%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Yes 55% · No 46%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

It is illegal for prediction markets such as Polymarket to allow New Zealanders to place bets on them, and the Kiwi Polls model may not reflect current market sentiment. These markets currently have low trading volume, so prices can swing sharply.

Friends of Kiwi Polls

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ResultsDesk.nz
Live on election night
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resultsdesk.nz →

These are independent sites run by other people. Kiwi Polls holds no financial interest in either of them and receives nothing for listing them here. We have no involvement in what they publish, and they have none in ours.

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